Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
