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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.